Summary
Tank math is the strategic calculus behind losing games to improve draft lottery odds. The Nets' experience in 2024-25 illustrates both the promise and peril: they finished with the 2nd-worst record (14% chance at #1) but fell to #8 in the lottery, missing Cooper Flagg entirely. The lottery is a probabilistic game — even perfect tanking doesn't guarantee a top pick. But the Nets' strategy was validated by volume: five first-round picks in the 2025 NBA Draft meant the lottery disappointment was survivable.
Key Insights
- The bottom 3 teams share equal 14% odds at #1 — there's no incentive to be THE worst, just bottom 3
- The lottery can drop a team a maximum of 4 spots (worst record can pick no lower than #5)
- The Nets had the 2nd-worst record in 2024-25 but fell to #8 — a worst-case lottery outcome
- Despite the lottery miss, the Nets drafted Egor Demin at #8 — who may end up being a franchise player anyway
- Volume hedge: having 5 first-round picks meant one bad lottery result didn't derail the rebuild
- The 2019 lottery reform was designed to reduce tanking incentive, and the Nets' experience shows why — the lottery is genuinely random
Details
2019 Lottery Odds (Current System)
| Record Rank | #1 Pick | Top 4 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Worst (1st) | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 2nd worst | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 3rd worst | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 4th worst | 12.5% | 47.9% |
| 5th worst | 10.5% | 42.1% |
The Nets' 2025 Lottery Experience
The Nets finished 2nd-worst, giving them:
- 14.0% chance at #1 (Cooper Flagg)
- 52.1% chance at top 4
- They fell to #8 — outside the top 4 entirely
This was the worst realistic outcome. But the rebuild survived because:
- Egor Demin at #8 has franchise-player upside (6'8" point guard, set rookie records)
- The Suns pick (#19) and Knicks pick (#26) provided additional first-rounders
- The Rockets pick (#27) and another trade pick (#22) filled out the class
- Five first-rounders in one draft means you only need 1-2 to hit
Why Volume Beats Position
The traditional tank assumes: worse record = higher pick = better player. But the 2019 lottery reform broke that equation. Now the math favors having more picks over having a higher pick:
- One 14% chance at #1 is worse than five chances at getting a good player somewhere in the first round
- The Nets' 5-pick strategy was essentially: "we'll take our shots across the whole first round"
- Historically, All-Stars come from picks 1-30, not just 1-5. Nic Claxton was pick #31.
The Anti-Tank Argument (Revisited)
Critics argued tanking destroys culture and fan engagement. The Nets' counter was always: the pick haul is so large that one tank year is enough. And it was — they tanked once (2024-25), drafted the core, and moved on. Compare this to Philadelphia's "Process" which lasted 4 years.
Related
Open Questions
- Would the Nets' rebuild trajectory be fundamentally different with the #1 pick instead of #8?
- Is the "volume over position" strategy the new model for rebuilding teams?
- Should the NBA further reform the lottery to prevent tanking, or does the current system already provide enough randomness?